Global scenario and forecasts for the first quarter of 2026

2025 ended with more positive results than initially expected, and as we move into 2026, several key factors are shaping the investment scenario. While economic growth remains moderate, but steady, supported by fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policies, elevated valuations and historically tight credit spreads highlight the importance of a selective approach. Investors should focus on opportunities that combine growth potential with structural resilience, carefully balancing risk and portfolio construction.

Rising public debt and weakening government bond performance created a favorable environment for real assets in 2025. The US dollar’s significant depreciation favoured gold and other precious metals to reach record-high levels. This surge is expected to continue in 2026, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.

European equity markets have benefited from diversification strategies and the European Union’s push for strategic independence. Banks, infrastructure, and defense sectors have performed particularly well, supported by expectations of fiscal expansion and targeted investments. This trend underscores the growing importance of Europe as a regional hub for investment resilience, balancing growth potential with geopolitical prudence.

In the US, the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious, data-driven approach. Inflation and employment metrics do not justify a more expansionary policy, yet the ongoing tensions between policymakers and political institutions influence market sentiment. Investors should monitor fiscal initiatives, such as retroactive tax measures and midterm-election stimulus, alongside central bank decisions, as they will shape interest rates and the investment cycle.

Inflation remains above the traditional 2% target, but shows no signs of accelerating. Price dynamics remain compatible with moderate economic growth, allowing central banks to maintain a balanced approach. While policymakers remain vigilant, restrictive measures are unlikely in the near term, creating a supportive backdrop for risk assets and selective equity exposure.

Investment in AI continues to be a defining market theme. The substantial investments of the so-called hyperscalers such as Meta, Microsoft, and Google have lifted valuations across the technology ecosystem. While the potential of AI offers growth opportunities, it also raises questions about long-term profitability and business models.

Geopolitical tensions will continue to shape markets, while moderately positive economic data from the US and Europe support a constructive outlook. Selective fiscal expansion and disciplined monetary policy provide a supportive medium-term environment, yet elevated valuations and tight credit spreads call for careful asset selection. Real assets, technological innovation, and targeted sectoral investments are likely to remain central to resilient, diversified portfolios.