Quarterly Report- Global scenario and forecasts for the third quarter of 2026

The second quarter of 2026 was dominated by the crisis between the United States and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an event that triggered the most significant energy shock in decades. However, the use of strategic reserves, demand-containment measures adopted by Asian countries, and the gradual progress of diplomatic negotiations helped limit the most severe effects on the global economy.

Despite the temporary increase in energy costs and the downward revision of growth expectations, the global economy demonstrated a greater-than-expected capacity to adapt. Improving economic surprise indicators, the gradual easing of oil-related pressures, and resilient demand supported a more constructive outlook for the economic cycle in the latter part of the quarter.

The energy shock brought inflation back to the forefront of central banks’ concerns. The ECB adopted a more restrictive stance, while the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious but vigilant approach. The appointment of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh helped strengthen the credibility of the U.S. central bank in its fight against inflation, reducing concerns about an excessively accommodative monetary policy.

Investments linked to artificial intelligence continue to represent one of the main drivers of global growth. However, markets are increasingly distinguishing between the winners and losers of the technological transformation. Semiconductor manufacturers and computing infrastructure providers continue to benefit from strong capital expenditure growth, while the software sector and certain traditional business models remain under pressure.

As concerns over the Middle East conflict gradually faded, investor interest expanded beyond the AI theme alone. Europe, industrial sectors, consumer-related industries, and other cyclical areas benefited from declining energy-related concerns, resulting in broader market participation and greater diversification of investment opportunities.

The outlook remains characterized by significant uncertainties, including developments in the labor market, elevated valuations in certain areas of the technology sector, and the U.S. political backdrop ahead of the elections. We believe a constructive yet disciplined approach remains appropriate, emphasizing diversification across investment styles, sectors, and geographic regions, with particular attention to long-term themes related to artificial intelligence, infrastructure, and the normalization of energy costs.